Where Now for Messi and Barça?

Lionel Messi’s under-par performances in the latter stages of the World Cup in Brazil has sparked an increasingly hostile debate, in the wake of Argentina defeat to Germany at the Maracana - with many critics pointing at a serious loss of form originating from the second half of last season at Barça.

But Messi’s, and by extension Barcelona’s, problems were more deep rooted than a mere loss of form during the second half of last season. The Argentine’s tribulations were simply symbiotic with the metaphorical car crash that was Barcelona last season.

Neymar’s arrival last summer, amid a variety of hype and fanfare, was met with indignation by Messi’s influential father, with widespread derision at the arrival of the €80m+ Brazilian (The figure was not, never was, nor ever will be, the €34m reported by Barça) being reported from within the Messi camp.

Barça's olive branch, astonishingly, was to cede to Messi Senior’s demands that his preferred choice of replacement for the outgoing Tito Vilanova, was to be his hero from Newell’s Old Boys, in Rosario; Gerardo Martino. This seemingly placated the Messi camp; satisfied that with their man at the helm, Messi’s future hegemony at Camp Nou was safely secured.

But this proved to be only the beginning of a season that was riven with strife at the Camp Nou. The strain which had already been evident during the Neymar deal, between the club and Messi’s camp,was only exacerbated a month into the season, with the arrest of Messi’s father on tax evasion charges. This had come only months after both Messi and his father were ordered to pay back €5m to the Spanish Government. Then, in December Messi Senior was arrested again - this time for alleged involvement in a money laundering scheme for a Colombian drugs cartel. Throughout all of this was the season long, protracted battle over Messi’s new contract.

Leo Messi's influential father, Jorge, has been ever present throughout his son's career.

Messi’s Season

Barcelona’s management of Lionel Messi, since he burst upon the world stage, has been essentially a ticking time bomb. When Alejandro Sabella took over the Argentinian National Team in 2011, one of the people from whom he immediately sought counsel was Messi’s mentor, and then coach; Pep Guardiola. Desperate to find a means through which Messi could begin replicating his feats for Barça in international football, Sabella had reached out to the one man who knew the intricacies of what it took to maximise the extraordinary innate talents of the genius from Rosario.

Guardiola’s response was an interesting insight into how to motivate the mercurial genius; “Give Leo the armband and never, ever substitute him. EVER.” But this was no meaningless, light hearted exchange between two acquaintances; his appearance record under Guardiola was astonishing.

Lionel Messi's Appearance and Goal statistics from 2008-13

But what makes it so astonishing, was perhaps the longest run of good fortune any player operating at the peak of his powers has ever enjoyed. Messi’s treatment by opposition players has at times, over the last half decade, been nothing short of barbaric. The worst of these was undoubtedly the 2008 Classico, at Camp Nou, where Juande Ramos’ shamed Real Madrid side carried out one of the most concerted efforts to kick a player out of the game ever witnessed. The real miracle has been Messi’s extraordinary propensity to avoid any serious long term injury.

Guardiola’s method of managing Messi was simple. If Messi is fit, then Messi plays. And play he did - with Tito Vilanova merely continuing in the same vein as his predecessor in 2012, as Messi played one game shy of 270 competitive games for Barça, in a five year period. Playing no fewer than 50 games for five consecutive seasons. Eventually, without an adequate system of managing Messi’s prodigious talent this was going to catch up with him. Eventually, something was going to have to give. And it inevitably did - as soon as Martino arrived at the Camp Nou.

Interestingly, Barça's concession in appointing Martino as new manager was a double edged ploy. As well as placating the concerns of Messi’s camp fearing that their nose being put out of joint by the arrival of Neymar, they believed that Martino’s relationship with Messi’s father afforded their new manager a certain latitude in dealing with their prized possession. Martino spoke openly about reducing the playing time of Messi; removing him in games which, in effect, were already won, and looking at ways of improving his periods of recovery between action.

Messi suffered an injured thigh during Barça's opening game of the season against Atletico at Camp Nou. He returned a week later to play in the second leg. In late September he suffered a muscle tear in his right thigh. Messi returned three weeks later. And then 20 minutes into a game, away to Betis last November, Messi hobbled off with another thigh muscle tear, now in his left left leg. This time however, there would be shortcuts to recovery, and Messi was to sit out for two months of the season.

Messi hobbled off after just 20 minutes, during a 4-1 win away to Real Betis last November.

Upon Messi’s return there were periods of genuine brilliance. At the Etihad in February, the Argentine was sublime. In a game during which Barça dominated much of the play, with a brutal pace in possession, beween Xavi and Iniesta in particular, Messi was free to exploit the space left by City’s attempts to close down Barça’s midfield - who at times looked as though they were only playing amongst themselves. Messi tortured and tormented Vincent Kompany and the hapless Dimechelis throughout the entire game. Ultimately, the English side were fortunate to escape with only a 2-0 defeat. A month later in Madrid, during the course of the second El Clasico of the season, Messi scored a hat trick during a thrilling 4-3 victory, in what was his, and Barça’s, best display of the season.

But these were increasingly rare displays of brilliance. Barça won only eleven of their final nineteen league games, following Messi’s return. There was a tepid capitulation at home to a resurgent Valencia, with Messi effectively reduced to a spectator for much of the second half. It was a similar story weeks later in San Sebastian, as Barça were beat 3-1 by an excellent Real Sociedad side. This game followed an increasingly familiar template. Barça enjoyed much of the possession and Messi scored an excellent equalizer, but increasingly, he also cut a frustrated figure and found it difficult to assert his influence on the course of the game, failing to achieve any meaningful penetration.

The low point of their league form came in March, with an embarrassing away defeat to relegation threatened Valladolid (who were eventually relegated), despite again, controlling the bulk of possession. Barça, and Messi in particular, were unable to break down their opposition - who were content in putting vast numbers of men in front of Messi and asking him to try and break them down. What was more concerning, was the worrying body language, the remonstrating with team mates, and the seeming disinterest in matches.

But the real moment of genuine crisis came during the Champions League Semi final, against Atletico Madrid.

Barça’s defeat to Atletico could (and should have been) as comprehensive as their defeat to Bayern, a year previous. It is not exaggeration to state that Barça could conceivably have been 3-0 down, inside ten minutes. When not in possession, Atletico defended, as they have done for three years under Diego Simeone, with all eleven men. Against Barça, Juanfran and Luis Felipe were both deployed no wider than their own 18-yard box; effectively ceding the flanks to Barça, in order to force them to attack from wide - knowing that in the absence of any concerted genuine wide threat, and with no aerial targets, Barça were pretty much done for. Throughout the entire miserable 90 minutes, for Barça fans, Messi was effectively a passenger.

He dropped out wide right and attempted to assert his influence as he has done so often, with the trademark drop of his shoulder, cutting inside onto his left foot (see below video), but faced with a box full of Atletico players who were willing to run through walls for their manager, there was simply no way through. When continued attempted attacks broke down in succession, the sight of a forlorn Messi making no attempt to win the ball back, became a depressingly familiar facet of the game. Not able to influence the game in any way shape or form, not capable (or willing) to have any meaningful impact in defence - Messi was effectively a passenger in a Barça team that still looks to him in times of desperation to be the difference.

But something far worse, and far more more serious, was also evident. The alluded to 'trademark drop of the shoulder' and burst of acceleration, that has conspired to embarrass the world’s elite defenders over the last decade, was agonisingly absent from view. Following the loss in Madrid, Messi was (for the first time) openly criticised in the Catalan press, and by some sections of The Barça support; for which he remains to the majority almost a civic religion. Upon their return to Barcelona, following the Copa Del Rey final defeat to Real, a sizeable number of disgruntled supporters met them upon their return to Camp Nou to voice their anger, with Messi being the focal point of much of it.

The main focus of attack against the Argentine, and one that was the most quoted, was that he was ‘saving himself’ for the World Cup at the expense of the club who had effectively raised him as their own. There was a shocking drop off in Messi’s work rate. During Barça’s defeat to Atletico two players covered less ground than Messi;

Thibauld Coutois and Jose Pinto.

At the season’s end, a Barcelona director argued that Messi had been furious at the Camp Nou leadership for “turning their back” on him during his tax evasion scandal, and stated that it was widely believed inside the club that Messi had used the El Clasico in March as a bargaining chip, by which the club was warned that Messi could (and would) turn on his prodigious talents, when and wherever he pleased. The same director also coined the now infamous phrase of Messi deliberately adopting a ‘Go Slow’ season, in revenge for what he saw as a slight against his influence at Camp Nou.

But aside from Messi’s woes, lies a deeper truth in the problems at Camp Nou - an increasingly Post-Tiki-Taka footballing landscape. 

Since Barça last won the Champions League in 2011, there has been a sea change in the blueprint for teams wanting to win the greatest club honour on earth. Teams who are physically imposing, who possess pace, speed, and power. Teams who are comfortable with having to soak up prolonged periods of pressure, but during transitions in play, possess enough genuine world class talent that are capable of ruthlessly exploiting the opposition's propensity for mistakes, when the opportunity arises. A ruthless model of ‘Power Football’ - that only a few years ago had been deemed all but obsolete.

The brutal reality is that thoughout this period, Barça’s refusal to adapt to these new demands, never abandoning Messi’s beloved 4-3-3, or indeed their over reliance on his influence, has seen them increasingly left behind. This reality has been masked by the uneasy fact that Messi and Barça ply their domestic trade in a league that is often so devoid of any genuine competitive opposition that it borders upon the farcical. Eleven times last season Barça hit domestic opponents by four goals or more. Three times by more than a six goal margin.

Time and again, when they have come up against the elite of European football, they have been found out to be hopelessly unequipped in dealing with the harsher footballing climate that they must now operate in. Against Chelsea (11/12), Bayern Munich (12/13), and Atletico Madrid (13/14), Barcelona faced European opposition whose physically imposing teams were willing to allow Barça the time in possession that they so crave and demand; yet utterly overwhelmed the Catalans.

These teams shared a ruthless dynamic, based around what, until only recently, had been considered a physicality which was deemed obelsete. Power in defending and set plays.

There have been no ‘free rides’ in these teams for any individual player. They have carried no passengers. Diego Costa often cut an increasingly isolated figure in matches on the way to Atletico’s La Liga triumph and Champions League final appearance last season; yet he revelled in this isolation. Costa never failed to make the thankless runs into the opposition’s channels, to stretch defences and create space, through which a host of Atletico players exploited all season long. When Costa was injured at the back end of the season, Adrian stepped into the role seamlessly, stepping in front of the opposition whenever they took control of possession. There is no over reliance on any individual players.

Diego Costa, reveling in isolation.

Elsewhere, Pep Guardiola’s Bayern Munich macabre dismantling at the hands of Real Madrid, only illustrated what for many observers has been patently obvious for some time. As it was reported back in Catalonia; "It’s an unavoidable thought: Barcelona’s crisis is, at the same time, Guardiola’s crisis, even if they are separated by a distance of a thousand kilometres.”

Bayern, like Barça, are fortunate in that they compete in an equally multi-tiered domestic competition, where its opposition will, more often than not, dutifully play the part of sacrificial lambs. But in European competition, Guardiola’s men were decimated, playing a possession based game that had effectively already proved to be to be tactically inept during his last campaign in Europe in 2012.

During Real Madrid’s 4-0 win in Munich, Bayern had plenty of possession, but Guardiola's men lacked the ability to move the ball around with the same tempo as his great Champions League winning teams had done previously. Chasing a one goal deficit from the first leg, Guardiola positioned Müller higher up the pitch, to play just just off Mario Mandzukic in a 4-3-2-1. But in reality, it was almost a conventional 4-4-2 at times, as both joined one another in attack, searching for a breakthrough that never came. It was a staggering display of tactical naivety, or arrogance, by a double Champions League winning coach.

With both Arjen Robben and Frank Ribery unable to find any penetration, and with Mandzukic and Müller often bypassed in the run of play; Toni Kroos and Bastian Schweinstiger were simply over run in midfield. Faced with the attacking onslaught of Angel Di Maria, Gareth Bale and Cristiano Ronaldo, the Bavarians were simply swept aside, and overwhelmed by the ruthlessness though which they were continually broke on. Overwhelmed by the sheer power and speed of their play.

What hurt the Germans, and drew the ire of the German press and Bayern supporters alike, was the fact that Carlo Ancelotti had simply adopted the Bayern blueprint under Jupp Heynkes, who only a year earlier, had carried out its own demolition job over Barça. It had now seemingly adopted a style of possession football that has increasingly been abandoned by teams winning the highest honours in world football.

Bayern fell short of expectations when met with Carlo Ancelotti's Real Madrid side.

Where Now For Messi and Barça?

Barça’s symbiotic relationship with Messi has been based upon a dumfoundingly simply proposition. As long as he turns it on it possession, he is free to roam the pitch, and have none of the on-field responsibilities shared by his teammates. It is testament to his abilities that few players have ever questioned this, or openly challenged its legitimacy. Even Zlatan gracefully accepted the role of dutiful subordinate. No easy feat.

But what about if increasingly, Messi doesn’t hold up to his end of the bargain? In his absence from Barça’s lineup last season, other players flourished - released from the restrictions placed upon them by Messi’s presence.

Cesc Fabregas enjoyed the best period of form in his Barça career; freed up to make the devastating runs from deep that menaced English football. There were marginal adaptions to Barça’s play as well; again centred on Fabregas. There was a new willingness to go more direct, utilising Fabregas’ greater range of passing than both Xavi and Iniesta. Alexis Sanchez too looked, for the first time since his arrival at Camp Nou, the world class talent he had been in Italy. Neymar too had quietly integrated himself well into the Barça team, with steady if not spectacular performances. He was improving each game and his influence was increasinlgly being felt.

Upon Messi’s return, Sanchez again reverted to a more marginal figure, finding himself isolated out wide. As did Fabregas, who eventually lost his place following Messi’s return. When he was used, it was often wide left as part of a front three, where he struggled to have any meaningful impact and subsequently became a scapegoat for much of Barcelona’s failings; openly jeered at Camp Nou. What is more worrying, as much as his negative influence on other players, is the fact that Messi’s return precipitated Barça’s domestic collapse.

Barça have ceded more to Messi than any other player in their illustrious history. But as long as the returns are consistent, and silverware continues to be accumulated at Camp Nou, then this can be justified. But Barça haven’t won a European competition for three years. Last campaign they finished without any competitive silverware for the first time in six seasons. They were again, outclassed in Europe (and domestically) - wedded to a system that panders to Messi’s demands at the expense of other talent surrounding him, whilst allowing him extended periods of recovery, afforded to no other player.

At what point do Barça simply say the words that Messi has thus far never heard?

No.

Messi is fast approaching the zenith of his footballing powers, which will present both he and Barça with a new set of problems. There has been the ongoing battle in the Catalan capital of getting Messi to embrace a more ‘athletic’ high protein diet of fish and white meat - to no avail. Preferring as he does, the staple red meat diet favoured by Argentine players. Thus far, this has elicited little more than mild annoyance within the hierarchy at Camp Nou. But as Messi approaches his later years, the effects (or lack off) effective conditioning and dietary discipline will become more pronounced. This simple facet of biological mechanics will not be lost on those who wield power. Those wary of the rapid physical decline so often seen in South American players as they approach seniority within the game.

The way Messi uses his low centre of gravity to elude tackles and get away from opposition players is predicated upon that trademark initial burst of pace that allows him to bypass their intentions. Through the back end of last season, and during the World Cup in Brazil, this was becoming an all too rare sight.

Given the sheer scale of Messi’s appearances is this really any wonder?

Having played over three-hundred competitive games in just six seasons. Given the absence of any effective management programme, what is more astonishing is that it has taken this long for any effects to become noticeable.

There are a multitude of commercial imperatives hanging over Barça right now. There is a new Stadium to pay for, and as Bartomeu has already shown during his brief tenure, he is just as relentless in pursuing any possible commercial venture, in order to feed Barça’s scramble for capital, as was his predecessor, Sandro Rosell. The window for making the sort of historically monumental financial return on Messi is closing fast. Another season of domestic and European underachievement will be a serious blow to FC Barcelona, and one that they can ill afford. If the Sheiks or the Qatari’s come knocking next summer, with the sort of transfer fee that would effectively pay for the New Stadium, it is difficult to see how Barça could turn down such an offer.

But Messi’s future and that of Barça perhaps rests with someone we haven’t spoke of yet.

Luis Suarez.

A more ruthless competitor and goal scorer doesn’t exist in world football right now. Messi has been lucky, since the departures of Samuel Eto’o and Thierry Henry - Messi has answered to no one. David Villa was moved on at Messi’s behest, Zlatan lasted a season before leaving the Camp Nou and is currently enjoying the best form of his life. As Messi’s hegemony grew at Camp Nou so did his influence on the pitch.

The evidence is bore out that during Barça’s first Champions League triumph under Guardiola, in 2008/09, their front three contributed to an incredible century of goals between them; Messi (38) Eto’o (36) and Henry (26). Fast forward to Barça’s last league-winning campaign in 2012, during which, Messi bagged a simply dumbfounding 60 goals in fifty games, the dependency on Messi is overwhelming. Barça’s next two top scorers were David Villa and Cesc Fabregas with 14 and 13 goals a piece, respectively.

But Luis Suarez is a different beast, who will not meekly and dutifully accept his place as a bit part. Suarez will look to terrorize Spanish opposition as soon as he is he free to return from his FIFA-imposed exile. The scene could be set for the one of the most sensational power struggles ever seen at the Camp Nou. If it is centred around the talents of the pair, then it truly could reinvigorate both Barça and Messi to even higher footballing feats. If however, like so often, it degenerates into an attritious battle of egos, it could well signal the end of either’s career at Camp Nou. If Suarez lights up La Liga upon his return, which is difficult not to see, then I wouldn’t like to bet on which one heads for the exit.

Take A Bow America

The USA certainly did not disappoint in the World Cup.

Well, the fact that they were knocked out in the second round of the World Cup was in itself disappointing, but it was disappointing for all the right reasons. The USA at this tournament won round the world with a never say die attitude and spirit that pushed theoretically superior teams to the limit and which was rewarded as such bravado often can be, with qualification out of the Group of Death.

Now it would be all to easy to dwell on the defeat against Belgium. However, the real narrative of the USA campaign has and shall remain, for the immediate future; one of potential.

Tim Howard was mighty between the sticks against Belgium,
propelling himself into the US Soccer stratosphere as a legend never to be forgotten.

Potential is a word that has been floated around about the United States and football for a while now. The past 2 decades has seen a tremendous growth in the American game that has elicited exciting responses from Americas incredibly devoted (and rapidly growing) soccer fanbase, and the more ambitious have declared that we are on the verge of the dawning of the Age of the Yank. Perhaps a tad premature, but this serves as a good example of the confidence that permeates the American psyche.

America came to the World Cup to win. Their German coach held a much more realistic opinion of their chances but even then his was the opinion of the man playing the long game, not the pessimist. Americans backed their team, and they did so in larger (and noisier) numbers than ever before. Yet the true success story was did not revolve around the support - though the ripples of that one will certainly be felt in the future. The true success story was about the players living the dream in Brazil.

Klinsmann has seemingly made great 

impressions on his young American side

The youth of America seems to relish the challenge of competing with the big boys with a passion that turned heads. DeAndre Yedlin, Omar Gonzalez, John Brooks, Timothy Chandler, Matt Besler, Fabian Johnson, Mix Diskerud, Julian Green... These are players with plenty of World Cups within them and who made big statements about themselves at the World Cup, and on the biggest stage of them all the world took notice.

One of the biggest success stories was the young Seattle Sounders star DeAndre Yedlin. Following his performances the rumours are circulating that he will secure himself a big move to a European team in the future. At the young age of 21, Yedlin has an opportunity to improve his game in a huge way. Likewise, Sporting Kansas City have also received interest in their World Cup Stars. However, what is interesting about Sporting KC is that the indication is there that the MLS club may keep hold of their stars. Europe still retains its allure, yet MLS has raised its profile in leaps and bounds. In fact in 2010, there were only 6 MLS players at the World Cup, this year there were 22, 10 of whom represented the United States. The American game is on the rise, and the future is bright.

As a footballer lover making a new life in the USA, I give my thanks to the soccer-Gods that by all indications America is going to make a huge impact in the future and that I will be able to witness it first hand. Of course, the game will always have its detractors (witness Ann Coulters much criticised rambling rant about the game) in America, but they are an ever decreasing minority. Even my fiancée's father, a man who obstinately clings to his traditional American sports with a religious zeal, like many of his generation, followed the progress of the USMNT with an interest that exceeded the casual passiveness of the past. It was a very pleasant surprise.

Following Germany's victory, my fiancée left me with a ponderous question. Supposing England and the USA made it to the next World Cup Final, who would I support? Now obviously as an Englishman the immediate reaction would be to say England. Yet, I also love the underdog, America is to be my new home, I love my fiancée and her American family, I love the team and I love the soccer culture. They have won me around to such a degree that such a choice was more difficult than I ever thought it could be, much to my inner patriots horror and much to my very own surprise. Now I did ultimately choose England, the land of my birth and where I learned to love the game, yet my decision came with some very interesting logic. Such an unlikely final, I reasoned, would possibly be the last chance England could have for a very long time to win the World Cup. Not true for the USA, who's star seems to be very much on the rise.

What surprised me was not the logic behind my decision, but how easy such logic came to me. Who knows, maybe some of that famous American confidence and optimism has rubbed off on this Brit? As an Englishman and a Middlesbrough fan, something to celebrate within the sport makes a very welcome addition into my life, and for that the USA has my thanks. A new breath of life to go alongside my new life.

I love this game, and America is learning to love it too.

England vs Italy - Match Preview

After four years of waiting for what feels like an eternity,  the most anticipated World Cup of all time is upon us. This evening, Brazil will kick off the greatest Footballing extravaganza in the history of the game when they play host to Croatia, in Säo Paulo. Finally, the footballing world can breathe a collective sigh of relief - The World Cup is here!

In our latest Post, The Lone Striker previews England’s opening matchup; Saturday night’s ‘Rumble in The Jungle’ against four-time World Cup Winners, the mighty Italy, in Manaus. So what can we expect?

The Azzurri

Expect few surprises from the Azzurri. In Gianluigi Buffon, Italy possess one of the great goalkeepers of all time - at 36 it will probably be the last time that the colossus will captain his country in a World Cup, and thus the last time he will attempt to add to his 2006 winners medal. In front of Buffon, will be his Juventus team mates; the centre-back pairing of Leonardo Bonucci and Giorgio Chiellini. Either side will be Milan duo, Ignazio Abate at right back and Mattia De Sciglio at left back.

Italy Imperious Captain Gianluigi Buffon will be aiming to win his 
second World Cup this summer in Brazil.

In midfield in recent weeks, Cesare Prandelli has experimented with a 4-3-3 formation, but has faced heavy criticism from back home in Italy, concern mounting due to lacklustre performances against The Republic of Ireland and lowly Luxembourg. Expect a return to Prandelli’s favoured 4-3-2-1 formation against England; with Andrea Pirlo, Italy’s conductor-in-chief (also playing  in his last World Cup) partnered in the midfield trio with Daniel de Rossi and Marco Veratti, (who replaces the injured Riccardo Montolivo).

PSG's Marco Verrati will likely play alongside Pirlo and De Rossi in the Italy midfield, 
replacing the injured Riccardo Montolivo.

Playing in front of this midfield three, and behind an Italian number 9 will likely be another of Prandelli’s favourites; Juve’s Claudio Marchisio. Prandelli partnered him during qualifying with Lazio’s Antonio Candreva. However, whoever start as Italy’s number 9, could determine who the decision as to who plays alongside Marchisio.

Who Prandelli chooses to lead the line is the subject of almost frenzied speculation in Italy right now. Serie A’s Capocannoniere; the hugely talented Ciro Immobile, has been a revelation this season. Last Sunday he repeated his club form with a hat-trick in Italy’s final warm up match before they face England, demonstrating the kind of form that has just seen Borussia Dortmund land his signature, to replace the outgoing Robert Lewandowski. If Prandelli chooses to go with Immobile, expect to see Alessio Cerci, who alongside Seria A's top scorer, formed the most explosive forward line in the league last term. Prandelli may well aim to harness their chemistry at club level for the Azzurri.

What to do with a problem like Mario?

Prandelli has shown remarkable faith in the volatile Mario Balotelli - who despite a wretched season at Milan, is still capable of turning a game on its head. Balotelli was outstanding against England two years ago at Euro 2012, and this may just see Prandelli give him the nod ahead of Immobile, but given the recent form of Immobile, don’t count out the idea of the Italian Boss going with the unknown.

All smiles now: Balotelli & Ciro Immobile share a joke at Italy's training camp.
But who will Cesare Prandelli choose to lead his line against England?

Italy’s Probable Lineup

4-3-2-1

The Three Lions

England’s back five - much like Italy’s effectively picks itself. 

Following a dreadful start to last season - which resulted in Manuel Pellegrini dropping him from The Manchester City lineup - since his return Joe Hart has been consistently brilliant, and was a major factor in City’s title success this season. 

Right back will, once again, be England’s biggest concern throughout this World Cup; with the erratic and gaffe-prone Glen Johnson as England’s first choice. The fact that Hodgson has used James Milner at in this role during England’s warm up games has done little to alleviate English anxiety, in a position that they have struggled in since Gary Neville’s retirement. 

England’s remaining back line will be made up of Chelsea’s Gary Cahill, who has increasingly looked a genuine world class centre back at club level this season, and Everton pair Phil Jagielka and Leighton Baines. Given the scarcity of genuine cover, the fitness of Cahill and Jagielka will be key for any English success this summer. Both Phil Jones and Chris Smalling have had horrendous seasons domestically and have looked poor in England’s warm up matches.

England's centre back pairing of Gary Cahill & Phil Jagielka will look to bring
their excellent club form with them to Brazil this summer.

It is difficult to see Roy Hodgson allowing Andrea Pirlo the time and space to man oeuvre at will and to tear England to shreds like their last meeting at Euro 2012. This time around, expect Jordan Henderson to be given the role of terrier, to close down the space around which Pirlo will look to dictate the play.

Perhaps the most important player in England’s first match will be the Jungle climate of Manaus. In what we already know to be terrible playing conditions, on a dreadful looking pitch, will only be exacerbated by an intimidating temperature of 25+ degrees Celsius, with a humidity up in the high 70’s. Don’t expect two teams looking to press each other high up the pitch early doors. 

Given the premium on possession, expect to see experienced stalwarts Lampard and Gerard marshaling the three-man midfield. Despite a combined age of over 70, Gerard is coming off the back of his best season in years, and the evergreen Lampard has looked excellent for England in their warm up games.

The Old Guard. 

Behind Hodgson’s beloved Rooney, in the absence of Manchester United’s injured  Danny Welbeck, it looks like England will call upon the explosive Raheem Sterling. Sterling is widely reported to have been superb in camp this summer, leaving senior squad members raving about his performances in training. If Hodsgon is wise, he will line Sterling up on the right, thus giving him licence to attack the normally right sided De Sciglio.

The Young Pretender: Raheem Sterling's post season form in an
England shirt has been a huge lifet for The England Camp.

Don’t all groan at once.

Don’t be surprised if Hodgson elects to start with Manchester City’s James Milner. The much maligned multiple Premier League winner rarely fails to deliver when called upon. The attack minded Sterling will look to go forward at every opportunity, and if England face being caught in possession and hit on the break, Milner is a safer option to re-balance a midfield with defensive duties, than the (otherwise excellent) pair of Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and Adam Lallana.

Our Predicted England Lineup

4-3-2-1

Final Thoughts

This one will be a tight affair, with both sides giving little away. Expect to see the best young English prospect since Paul Gascoigne, Everton's Ross Barkley introduced late in the game, as well as Arsenal's Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain. Their introduction could do some serious damage to a tiring Italy side not blessed with a great deal of pace. 

For Italy likewise, expect Antonio Cassano & Ciro Immobile to feature in the latter stages, attempting to make a similar impact. If Prandelli introduces Alessio Cerci to stretch England's midfield, we could see Roy Hodgson replace Lampard with Arsenal's Jack Wilshere; whose natural ability and aggression looking to get forward from central areas will be a massive worry for the Italians.

Prediction.*

1-0 England. A tight game of few real chances is decided late on by the explosive Ross Barkley, who introduces himself upon The World Stage.

*Warning. Prediction may contain unsubstantiated hope and optimism.

Don't agree with our lineup? Comment below, or on social media, as to how you would send out the Three Lions!

England's Route To World Cup Glory In Brazil

Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The local time is 7:45pm on the 13th July, 2014.

"Football's Coming Home" blares around the Estádio do Maracanã, as Steven Gerrard prepares to lift the FIFA World Cup Trophy; the first Englishman to do so for almost half a century. England have just dispatched their age old rivals Germany on penalties to secure victory in the World Cup Final...

...Ok, back to reality.

England fans are often renowned for their massive over-confidence in their heroes in white. With humbling absence from Euro 2008 and woeful under performance in South Africa 2010, even the most optimistic England fan has been toned down in recent years, and would be forced to admit that progression beyond the Round of 16 in Brazil would be a pleasing result. Although, you might argue that Euro 2012 was a step in the right direction.

That is not to say that qualification from the group stages cannot, or even should not be achievable. Roy Hodgson has picked an exciting young squad, and in our Group D opponents we have an ageing Italy side, and a potentially Suarez-less Uruguay; whose World Cup availability hangs on the development of that knee injury. Elsewhere, England will be considered heavy favourites to dispatch the Costa Rican side without too much trouble - mind you, we did fail to register a goal past Algeria last time out on the World Cup stage.

But say we did get out of the groups. How might our World Cup pan out beyond those vital first three games?

Got your wall chart at the ready? Here use this one:

Click to download.

Naturally, in order to plot our path through the latter stages, several large assumptions are required; namely regarding how all of the other groups will finish.

In order to make these predictions, factors must be taken into account for each group; including qualifying performance, previous tournament experience, and continental home advantage.

Now obviously, to say this is a fool proof prediction would be silly - as we all know, football is capable of producing magical moments, that nobody could have legislated for. I do not profess to be capable of predicting the future.

However... this is who we think will qualify from each of their respective groups, and in what order:

Figure 1 - Group Predictions

Group A 

It is difficult to pick between Mexico and Croatia for second Place in Group A (*1). Despite having taken similar paths to the World Cup Finals, Mexico just about get the nod, due to continental advantage. By rights, Brazil topping the group should be a relatively straight-forward affair.

Group B

Group B sees the two finalists from South Africa 2010 pitted against each other once again. We expect the result to be the same, with the possession-based Spanish game being just too much for the Dutch to compete with. 

Chile may yet cause a stir; having home continent advantage and a decent turn out in qualification, but we're not expecting anything sufficient from either them or Australia. Coupled with two world superpowers in Spain and Holland, it is difficult to see either nation causing a severe upset. Thanks for coming though.

Group C 

Colombia have home continent advantage and also qualified strongly - only 2 points behind second-favourites Argentina after a sixteen-game round-robin; winning the same amount of games; 9. We expect Colombia to continue this vein of form throughout the Group Stage this summer and win Group C (*2).

The runner-up spot is a tight affair between Greece and Côte d'Ivoire, but the world class talents of Yaya Touré, Didier Drogba and company might just give them the required edge.

Group E 

Despite Switzerland being the seeded team in Group E, they qualified from a relatively easy group. In comparison, France finished second in their's, behind Spain, and beat a strong Ukraine side to win their playoff match. France are therefore our pick to top the group (*3).

Ecuador have continental home advantage, which could prove to be a decisive factor in Group E. On top of this, they gave a decent account of themselves in the qualifying stages, finishing fourth in the South American round-robin, and managed to snatch a draw at home to Argentina. For these reasons, we have given second place to Ecuador. 

In truth however, this will be a tough one to call, with Switzerland more than capable of handling themselves on the world stage - remember that 1-0 vanquishing of champions-elect, Spain, in 2010?

Group F

With more tournament experience and players comfortable in warmer climes, than Bosnia & Herzegovina, Nigeria are our choice for second place in Group F (*4), whilst Argentina are nailed on to clinch the top spot without too much trouble.

Bosnia & Herzegovina did however, qualify well, and might just prove to upset this particular prediction. In the greater scheme of things however, this doesn't impact much, as England would not face them until the Semi-Finals, whereby they would have needed to brush aside France and Germany en route - an unlikely scenario.

Group G

Similar in many respects to Group B. In a different group, Ghana or the USA might have managed to squeeze through into the Round of 16. However, trophy contenders Germany are favourites for the top spot, with Portugal our pick for second place. 

Despite Portugal requiring a play-off win against Sweden in order to even be in Brazil (unfortunately resulting in Zlatan Ibrahimovic's absence this summer), the elite talents of Cristiano Ronaldo may again be enough to drag them through, kicking and screaming. In reality though, this is a tough group for anybody who doesn't come from the land of bratwurst and lederhosen.

Group H 

Belgium, incredibly, come to Brazil as fifth favourites to lift the trophy. What they lack in tournament pedigree, they make up for in rising young superstars; in the likes of Eden Hazard and Thibaut Courtois. Mix this with the leadership knowhow of Vincent Kompany, and their high hopes might be justifiable. They also managed to qualify strongly in a tough group consisting of Croatia, Serbia, Scotland, Wales, and Macedonia - losing against nobody.

Despite having had a soft spot for South Korea since their incredible road to the Semi-Finals on home soil in 2002; Russia look like they will be just too strong for them. The Russians qualified well, beating a lack-lustre Portugal in the process. For those reasons, we award them second place in Group H, ahead of Korea (*5).

Knockout Stages

From the above results, the resulting Round of 16 is shown below, and has also been extrapolated into the Semi-Final stages, using the same criteria as in the group stages.

Figure 2 - Knockout Stage Predictions and Pathways

England

So, where are England amidst all of this? As you can see from Figure 2, we are left with two possible pathways in the "top-half" of the draw; neither of which are any picnic.

Interestingly, it would seem that our final positioning in Group D; whether finishing as table topping champions or in second place, makes seemingly minimal impact on our overall chances; with us  required to face at least two of the top four pre-tournament favourites on our way to the Final, and then likely another in the actual Final itself.

At the time of writing, the pre-tournament favourites rank as:

1) Brazil 3/1

2) Argentina 5/1

3) Germany 13/2

4) Spain 7/1 (I'd appreciate if you finished reading my article before hot-footing off to your local bookmakers - what a price!! - a Thwaite-Top-Tip if there ever was one).

12) Colombia 37/1

16) Ivory Coast 139/1

England Win Group D

The above odds would dictate that winning our group would be favourable; thereby coming up against the Ivory Coast (whom we have never before faced in the history of International Football) in the Round of 16 - progressing to face who we would expect to be Spain, followed by Argentina in the Semi-Finals. Topping Group D may also prove to be beneficial to England in the confidence department, having had to already better both Italy and Uruguay.

We could also draw on recent history going forward, should this prove to be our route of choice. Argentina have failed to better England since that fateful meeting in Saint-Étienne during the France '98 World Cup. 

Since that night, we have had the edge over the auld enemy, beating them twice (once during World Cup '02, effectively forcing their early exit in the Group Stages) and drawing once - although, they didn't have a certain kid from Rosario playing on any of those occasions. They do this time around.

Of course, we incredibly dispatched the reigning World Champions Spain, during an international friendly when last we met, in November 2011. With their Barça core having had a poor La Liga season; if ever there was a time to beat Spain, it might just be now. 

Writing off the current holders so easily is not something I would normally do (hence my intention to bet on them), but their vice-grip on world football has to loosen some time... doesn't it? Maybe not. They do still after all, continue to dominate European club football.

England Finish Second In Group D

Should we finish in a respectable second place in Group D, our destined route doesn't look altogether too dissimilar - consisting of a relatively easier task in the Round of 16, followed by a global superpower, followed by another who we happen to have historical beef with, in the Semi-Finals. 

This route is statistically more difficult, according to the bookmaker. But in reality; not by much. "Football isn't played on paper" - as they say. 

Colombia are a side that we have never lost to in our five previous meetings - winning three in the process. Although, our last win against them in South America came in 1970, having not played them at "their place" since. Bobby Charlton scored that day. 

Our potential Quarter-Final opponents, Brazil, are of course, this summer's tournament hosts; a role that has usually boded well for their predecessors. Being used to the local climate and having massive home crowd advantage throughout the tournament, the Samba-boys must be taken very seriously indeed for this summer's crown - not to mention that they're the most successful nation in international footballing history, despite having not won the trophy for over a decade now.

One point that you could argue however is that; it is not a given that Brazil will overcome a Dutch side that finished runner's up last time out, in order to make it into the Quarters themselves. Should Holland manage to oust Brazil, England fans might see this fixture as a bit more enticing.

Germany would then more-than-likely be our next challenge, in the Semi-Finals. They, themselves will have had to overcome a mercurial France to reach this point. France of course, famous for their wildly unpredictable tournament turn-outs, usually either winning, or crashing out in the Group Stages.

Germany represent a very real nightmare for any Englishman in the modern age of football. Visions of Mesut Özil outstripping Gareth Barry, before cooly putting Thomas Müller in, to round-off that humiliating 4-1 thumping in Bloemfontein four years ago, still resonate in the minds of many. It was without doubt the moment that Germany announced to us "We are in a different league".

We do however, go into this World Cup armed with goal-line technology, so you never know; rest easy Frank Lampard. An ever-present World Cup contender; Germany will never be an easy opponent.

Conclusions

In reality, it would appear that the best we can hope to achieve this summer is a commendable Quarter Final appearance, before being dumped out rather unceremoniously by any number of Latino-speaking countries. Indeed, we first have to navigate out of Group D; not an easy task in itself.  

It is evident from Roy Hodgson's squad selection that he is focussed on the years to come, and will not necessarily be overly-concerned with our stage of elimination in this particular tournament. The selection of Luke Shaw, in particular, ahead of Ashley Cole confirmed that Roy is keen to blood the promising youth emerging in the Premier League and will already have half an eye on France 2016.

But in the end, "C'est la vie" - European football has experienced extraordinary levels of competition this season; who's to say the FIFA World Cup cannot do the same. Regardless of England's final outcome, this summer will still be a very special time to be a football fan.

One thing is for certain though; it can't be said we had it easy, should the unthinkable happen.