Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The local time is 7:45pm on the 13th July, 2014.
"Football's Coming Home" blares around the Estádio do Maracanã, as Steven Gerrard prepares to lift the FIFA World Cup Trophy; the first Englishman to do so for almost half a century. England have just dispatched their age old rivals Germany on penalties to secure victory in the World Cup Final...
...Ok, back to reality.
England fans are often renowned for their massive over-confidence in their heroes in white. With humbling absence from Euro 2008 and woeful under performance in South Africa 2010, even the most optimistic England fan has been toned down in recent years, and would be forced to admit that progression beyond the Round of 16 in Brazil would be a pleasing result. Although, you might argue that Euro 2012 was a step in the right direction.
That is not to say that qualification from the group stages cannot, or even should not be achievable. Roy Hodgson has picked an exciting young squad, and in our Group D opponents we have an ageing Italy side, and a potentially Suarez-less Uruguay; whose World Cup availability hangs on the development of that knee injury. Elsewhere, England will be considered heavy favourites to dispatch the Costa Rican side without too much trouble - mind you, we did fail to register a goal past Algeria last time out on the World Cup stage.
But say we did get out of the groups. How might our World Cup pan out beyond those vital first three games?
Got your wall chart at the ready? Here use this one:
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| Click to download. |
Naturally, in order to plot our path through the latter stages, several large assumptions are required; namely regarding how all of the other groups will finish.
In order to make these predictions, factors must be taken into account for each group; including qualifying performance, previous tournament experience, and continental home advantage.
Now obviously, to say this is a fool proof prediction would be silly - as we all know, football is capable of producing magical moments, that nobody could have legislated for. I do not profess to be capable of predicting the future.
However... this is who we think will qualify from each of their respective groups, and in what order:
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| Figure 1 - Group Predictions |
Group A
It is difficult to pick between Mexico and Croatia for second Place in Group A (*1). Despite having taken similar paths to the World Cup Finals, Mexico just about get the nod, due to continental advantage. By rights, Brazil topping the group should be a relatively straight-forward affair.
Group B
Group B sees the two finalists from South Africa 2010 pitted against each other once again. We expect the result to be the same, with the possession-based Spanish game being just too much for the Dutch to compete with.
Chile may yet cause a stir; having home continent advantage and a decent turn out in qualification, but we're not expecting anything sufficient from either them or Australia. Coupled with two world superpowers in Spain and Holland, it is difficult to see either nation causing a severe upset. Thanks for coming though.
Group C
Colombia have home continent advantage and also qualified strongly - only 2 points behind second-favourites Argentina after a sixteen-game round-robin; winning the same amount of games; 9. We expect Colombia to continue this vein of form throughout the Group Stage this summer and win Group C (*2).
The runner-up spot is a tight affair between Greece and Côte d'Ivoire, but the world class talents of Yaya Touré, Didier Drogba and company might just give them the required edge.
Group E
Despite Switzerland being the seeded team in Group E, they qualified from a relatively easy group. In comparison, France finished second in their's, behind Spain, and beat a strong Ukraine side to win their playoff match. France are therefore our pick to top the group (*3).
Ecuador have continental home advantage, which could prove to be a decisive factor in Group E. On top of this, they gave a decent account of themselves in the qualifying stages, finishing fourth in the South American round-robin, and managed to snatch a draw at home to Argentina. For these reasons, we have given second place to Ecuador.
In truth however, this will be a tough one to call, with Switzerland more than capable of handling themselves on the world stage - remember that 1-0 vanquishing of champions-elect, Spain, in 2010?
Group F
With more tournament experience and players comfortable in warmer climes, than Bosnia & Herzegovina, Nigeria are our choice for second place in Group F (*4), whilst Argentina are nailed on to clinch the top spot without too much trouble.
Bosnia & Herzegovina did however, qualify well, and might just prove to upset this particular prediction. In the greater scheme of things however, this doesn't impact much, as England would not face them until the Semi-Finals, whereby they would have needed to brush aside France and Germany en route - an unlikely scenario.
Group G
Similar in many respects to Group B. In a different group, Ghana or the USA might have managed to squeeze through into the Round of 16. However, trophy contenders Germany are favourites for the top spot, with Portugal our pick for second place.
Despite Portugal requiring a play-off win against Sweden in order to even be in Brazil (unfortunately resulting in Zlatan Ibrahimovic's absence this summer), the elite talents of Cristiano Ronaldo may again be enough to drag them through, kicking and screaming. In reality though, this is a tough group for anybody who doesn't come from the land of bratwurst and lederhosen.
Group H
Belgium, incredibly, come to Brazil as fifth favourites to lift the trophy. What they lack in tournament pedigree, they make up for in rising young superstars; in the likes of Eden Hazard and Thibaut Courtois. Mix this with the leadership knowhow of Vincent Kompany, and their high hopes might be justifiable. They also managed to qualify strongly in a tough group consisting of Croatia, Serbia, Scotland, Wales, and Macedonia - losing against nobody.
Despite having had a soft spot for South Korea since their incredible road to the Semi-Finals on home soil in 2002; Russia look like they will be just too strong for them. The Russians qualified well, beating a lack-lustre Portugal in the process. For those reasons, we award them second place in Group H, ahead of Korea (*5).
Knockout Stages
From the above results, the resulting Round of 16 is shown below, and has also been extrapolated into the Semi-Final stages, using the same criteria as in the group stages.
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| Figure 2 - Knockout Stage Predictions and Pathways |
England
So, where are England amidst all of this? As you can see from Figure 2, we are left with two possible pathways in the "top-half" of the draw; neither of which are any picnic.
Interestingly, it would seem that our final positioning in Group D; whether finishing as table topping champions or in second place, makes seemingly minimal impact on our overall chances; with us required to face at least two of the top four pre-tournament favourites on our way to the Final, and then likely another in the actual Final itself.
At the time of writing, the pre-tournament favourites rank as:
1) Brazil 3/1
2) Argentina 5/1
3) Germany 13/2
4) Spain 7/1 (I'd appreciate if you finished reading my article before hot-footing off to your local bookmakers - what a price!! - a Thwaite-Top-Tip if there ever was one).
12) Colombia 37/1
16) Ivory Coast 139/1
England Win Group D
The above odds would dictate that winning our group would be favourable; thereby coming up against the Ivory Coast (whom we have never before faced in the history of International Football) in the Round of 16 - progressing to face who we would expect to be Spain, followed by Argentina in the Semi-Finals. Topping Group D may also prove to be beneficial to England in the confidence department, having had to already better both Italy and Uruguay.
We could also draw on recent history going forward, should this prove to be our route of choice. Argentina have failed to better England since that fateful meeting in Saint-Étienne during the France '98 World Cup.
Since that night, we have had the edge over the auld enemy, beating them twice (once during World Cup '02, effectively forcing their early exit in the Group Stages) and drawing once - although, they didn't have a certain kid from Rosario playing on any of those occasions. They do this time around.
Of course, we incredibly dispatched the reigning World Champions Spain, during an international friendly when last we met, in November 2011. With their Barça core having had a poor La Liga season; if ever there was a time to beat Spain, it might just be now.
Writing off the current holders so easily is not something I would normally do (hence my intention to bet on them), but their vice-grip on world football has to loosen some time... doesn't it? Maybe not. They do still after all, continue to dominate European club football.
England Finish Second In Group D
Should we finish in a respectable second place in Group D, our destined route doesn't look altogether too dissimilar - consisting of a relatively easier task in the Round of 16, followed by a global superpower, followed by another who we happen to have historical beef with, in the Semi-Finals.
This route is statistically more difficult, according to the bookmaker. But in reality; not by much. "Football isn't played on paper" - as they say.
Colombia are a side that we have never lost to in our five previous meetings - winning three in the process. Although, our last win against them in South America came in 1970, having not played them at "their place" since. Bobby Charlton scored that day.
Our potential Quarter-Final opponents, Brazil, are of course, this summer's tournament hosts; a role that has usually boded well for their predecessors. Being used to the local climate and having massive home crowd advantage throughout the tournament, the Samba-boys must be taken very seriously indeed for this summer's crown - not to mention that they're the most successful nation in international footballing history, despite having not won the trophy for over a decade now.
One point that you could argue however is that; it is not a given that Brazil will overcome a Dutch side that finished runner's up last time out, in order to make it into the Quarters themselves. Should Holland manage to oust Brazil, England fans might see this fixture as a bit more enticing.
This route is statistically more difficult, according to the bookmaker. But in reality; not by much. "Football isn't played on paper" - as they say.
Colombia are a side that we have never lost to in our five previous meetings - winning three in the process. Although, our last win against them in South America came in 1970, having not played them at "their place" since. Bobby Charlton scored that day.
Our potential Quarter-Final opponents, Brazil, are of course, this summer's tournament hosts; a role that has usually boded well for their predecessors. Being used to the local climate and having massive home crowd advantage throughout the tournament, the Samba-boys must be taken very seriously indeed for this summer's crown - not to mention that they're the most successful nation in international footballing history, despite having not won the trophy for over a decade now.
One point that you could argue however is that; it is not a given that Brazil will overcome a Dutch side that finished runner's up last time out, in order to make it into the Quarters themselves. Should Holland manage to oust Brazil, England fans might see this fixture as a bit more enticing.
Germany represent a very real nightmare for any Englishman in the modern age of football. Visions of Mesut Özil outstripping Gareth Barry, before cooly putting Thomas Müller in, to round-off that humiliating 4-1 thumping in Bloemfontein four years ago, still resonate in the minds of many. It was without doubt the moment that Germany announced to us "We are in a different league".
Conclusions
In reality, it would appear that the best we can hope to achieve this summer is a commendable Quarter Final appearance, before being dumped out rather unceremoniously by any number of Latino-speaking countries. Indeed, we first have to navigate out of Group D; not an easy task in itself.
It is evident from Roy Hodgson's squad selection that he is focussed on the years to come, and will not necessarily be overly-concerned with our stage of elimination in this particular tournament. The selection of Luke Shaw, in particular, ahead of Ashley Cole confirmed that Roy is keen to blood the promising youth emerging in the Premier League and will already have half an eye on France 2016.
It is evident from Roy Hodgson's squad selection that he is focussed on the years to come, and will not necessarily be overly-concerned with our stage of elimination in this particular tournament. The selection of Luke Shaw, in particular, ahead of Ashley Cole confirmed that Roy is keen to blood the promising youth emerging in the Premier League and will already have half an eye on France 2016.
But in the end, "C'est la vie" - European football has experienced extraordinary levels of competition this season; who's to say the FIFA World Cup cannot do the same. Regardless of England's final outcome, this summer will still be a very special time to be a football fan.
One thing is for certain though; it can't be said we had it easy, should the unthinkable happen.
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