England vs Italy - Match Review: A familiar scoreline, but anything other than 'business as usual'

Aaaannnd breathe. OK, so we've had a couple of day's to let the dust settle in Manaus. We had great feedback from our England vs Italy match preview, so we've decided to give you some light analysis now that we've had chance to take stock of the game, and where it leaves England in regards to Group D. 

England's starting lineup agaisnt Italy on Saturday evening in Manaus

So, England’s first match in Brazil ended in defeat on Saturday night; but the result and England’s performance was anything but ‘business as usual’. For the first time at a major tournament, for well over a decade, England played with a passion, a hunger, and a belief that finally restored a sense of hope and pride amongst England’s long suffering nation of supporters. We here at The Lone Striker believe that's worthy of celebrating. 

The Brains Trust

The Brains Trust

Roy Hodgson has quietly constructed one of them most dynamic management structures that any England coach has ever assembled. Next to long trusted loyal lieutenant Ray Lewington, is the fiery and intensely knowledgeable Gary Neville. Hodgson rules very much through committee rather  than autocratically, and one suspects that the influence of Neville likely swayed Hodgson’s team selection on Saturday evening towards England’s exciting youngsters. Something The Lone Striker feared he wouldn't do, given his reticence to invest his faith in the same group of players in the past.  But ultimately, the buck stops with Hodgson. It takes a certain degree of courage to gamble ‘with the kids’ as Hodgson did against Italy - it’s his job and reputation on the line. His bold, young, attacking lineup was a revelation. There was vindiation too, for his faith in Danny Welbeck, in the face of increasing pressure (including from us) to leave him out of the starting lineup.

Raheem Sterling: A Star Is Born

What became evident just minutes into Saturday’s game was that in Raheem Sterling, England possess one of the most exciting young prospects in world football. Sterling was a constant menace to the Italians who at times had no answer to Sterling’s pace and trickery. Not since Euro 2004 in Portugal have England seen a performance of such sheer fearlessness. A star was born on Saturday night. Let’s just hope that his light burns brighter than those who have come before him.

Danny Welbeck: Faith Repaid

Danny Welbeck was outstanding against The Italians, 
repaying Roy Hodgson's faith in The Manchester United youngster.

Danny Welbeck, the much maligned Manchester United wideman finally repaid the faith of his manager, with his most exceptional performance in an England shirt. Welbeck was relentless in his pursuit to dispossess and pressurise the Italian back line. His tireless performance was a vindication for Hodgson’s refusal to heed calls for Welbeck’s exclusion.

Wayne Rooney: More Frustration for The United Superstar

Rooney cut an increasingly frustrated figure at times against Italy 

It was a mixed night for the under-fire Manchester United star who has come under intense scrutiny, leading up to England’s World Cup. Rooney looked uncomfortable in his starting position on the left of England’s midfield, struggling to grasp his defensive duties, which continually left Leighton Baines exposed and looking vulnerable down England’s left hand side. The Italians all too quickly pounced on this obvious English weakness and clinically continued to target England’s left flank. 

Going forward, Rooney provided England’s superb assist for Sturridge’s goal, and came close to grabbing England’s equaliser in the second half following some superb work to create an opening for himself. 

Ultimately, Rooney needs to do more, and desperately needs a world class performance in order for Hodsgon to continue to justify his place in the starting eleven.  The wolves are at the door for Rooney. With a hungry, and hugely talented Ross Barkley waiting in the wings, and with England’s best player Raheem Sterling excelling in Rooney’s favoured position behind the number 9, Rooney could struggle to finish this tournament as an regular starter.

The Engine Room

The much improved Jordan Henderson continued to impress alongside
 Liverpool teammate Steven Gerrard.

With Italy (predictably) dominating in possession, England struggled to get Steven Gerrard into the game, and for periods, the England captain became a peripheral figure. But in Gerrard’s Liverpool teammate Jordan Henderson, England posses the most improved footballer in the country, over the second half of last season. He looked almost unrecognizable from the player who faced Italy two years ago in Kiev, and it was illustrative that it was Henderson who collared Rooney after The England's equaliser to remind him of his defensive duties - such is his growth in stature inside the England camp.

England again struggled to close down the space around Pirlo the way in which Italy, (the masters of the art) do. But England seemed content to allow Pirlo the time and space to retain the ball deep in Italian territory, knowing that in messrs Sturridge, Welbeck, Sterling and Rooney, England probably possess the most potentially explosive front four of any team at this World Cup - apart from perhaps the Argentineans. 

Apart from Italy’s opening goal - the result of a mass suicidal lapse in concentration, Italy rarely threatened from central midfield areas, and were largely reduced to efforts from distance. This was in large part, due to the industry and discipline of the excellent Henderson, shoring up the space in front of England’s back four throughout.

England's Rear Guard

Glenn Johnson must do more to protect England's centre back pairing

Baines’ vulnerbality down England’s left flank was clearly a cause of concern for Hodgson at the close of the half. In the absence of any effective midfield cover, England started the second half with the excellent Welbeck switched to wide left - but Baines continued to look vulnerable from wide areas, and will rightly feel disappointed that he wasn’t able to close down Candreva’s cross for the (unusually) clinical Balotelli. 

Apart from Cahill being beat by a superb piece of forward movement by Balotelli, ghosting a route to the back post for Italy’s winner, both he and Jagielka looked comfortable throughout. As did  Joe Hart in England’s goal. Despite a nervy start; Hart too, will feel dissaponted that he didn't do better with his old pal's eventual winner.

England must do better to protect the central spine of their back four - which calls upon both Glenn Johnson and Leighton Baines to dominate their respective flanks and to press opposing wide players more aggressively. But these problems are easily rectified in the coming days on England's training pitches.

Goals! Goals! Goals!

Sturridge wheels away after scoring England's superb equalizer

Daniel Sturridge grew in stature throughout the game. An early aversion to gamble in central areas was soon forgiven with a world class finish, after England had carved open Italy in the space of two simple passes - in a way that the Italians singularly failed to do so against the England lineup. 

With England desperately piling forward in the latter stages, the lack of an aerial presence proved a problem. England may have been better served in introducing Rickie Lambert to give them a greater central threat late on, rather than the otherwise impressive Adam Lallana. But critics who called for Andy Carrol's inclusion will point to the fact that the "Geordie Warrior" was excellent against Italy two years ago in Kiev, and the likes of Rooney, Lallana and Sterling were unlikely to win the aerial battles with Chiellini and Barzagli in particular.

The Lone Striker's Verdict

In an almost perverse way, Englands defeat on Saturday night may prove more valuable to this young English squad than a victory would ever have. They were taught valuable lessons at the hands of the Azzurri, that will be of enormous value to these players in this tournament and in tournaments' to come. 

Football at this level is brutally unforgiving, and England were made to pay harshly for two lapses in concentration. But this isn’t any any other tournament, and this isn’t just any other group of England players. 

England have nothing to fear against The Uruguayans this Thursday - even with the return of the mercurial Suarez. On Saturday's showing in Manaus, these are exciting days ahead for Roy Hodgson's new look side.

Strap in an enjoy the ride, it could get bumpy, but one thing is for sure, this could be the start of something very special.

England vs Italy - Match Preview

After four years of waiting for what feels like an eternity,  the most anticipated World Cup of all time is upon us. This evening, Brazil will kick off the greatest Footballing extravaganza in the history of the game when they play host to Croatia, in Säo Paulo. Finally, the footballing world can breathe a collective sigh of relief - The World Cup is here!

In our latest Post, The Lone Striker previews England’s opening matchup; Saturday night’s ‘Rumble in The Jungle’ against four-time World Cup Winners, the mighty Italy, in Manaus. So what can we expect?

The Azzurri

Expect few surprises from the Azzurri. In Gianluigi Buffon, Italy possess one of the great goalkeepers of all time - at 36 it will probably be the last time that the colossus will captain his country in a World Cup, and thus the last time he will attempt to add to his 2006 winners medal. In front of Buffon, will be his Juventus team mates; the centre-back pairing of Leonardo Bonucci and Giorgio Chiellini. Either side will be Milan duo, Ignazio Abate at right back and Mattia De Sciglio at left back.

Italy Imperious Captain Gianluigi Buffon will be aiming to win his 
second World Cup this summer in Brazil.

In midfield in recent weeks, Cesare Prandelli has experimented with a 4-3-3 formation, but has faced heavy criticism from back home in Italy, concern mounting due to lacklustre performances against The Republic of Ireland and lowly Luxembourg. Expect a return to Prandelli’s favoured 4-3-2-1 formation against England; with Andrea Pirlo, Italy’s conductor-in-chief (also playing  in his last World Cup) partnered in the midfield trio with Daniel de Rossi and Marco Veratti, (who replaces the injured Riccardo Montolivo).

PSG's Marco Verrati will likely play alongside Pirlo and De Rossi in the Italy midfield, 
replacing the injured Riccardo Montolivo.

Playing in front of this midfield three, and behind an Italian number 9 will likely be another of Prandelli’s favourites; Juve’s Claudio Marchisio. Prandelli partnered him during qualifying with Lazio’s Antonio Candreva. However, whoever start as Italy’s number 9, could determine who the decision as to who plays alongside Marchisio.

Who Prandelli chooses to lead the line is the subject of almost frenzied speculation in Italy right now. Serie A’s Capocannoniere; the hugely talented Ciro Immobile, has been a revelation this season. Last Sunday he repeated his club form with a hat-trick in Italy’s final warm up match before they face England, demonstrating the kind of form that has just seen Borussia Dortmund land his signature, to replace the outgoing Robert Lewandowski. If Prandelli chooses to go with Immobile, expect to see Alessio Cerci, who alongside Seria A's top scorer, formed the most explosive forward line in the league last term. Prandelli may well aim to harness their chemistry at club level for the Azzurri.

What to do with a problem like Mario?

Prandelli has shown remarkable faith in the volatile Mario Balotelli - who despite a wretched season at Milan, is still capable of turning a game on its head. Balotelli was outstanding against England two years ago at Euro 2012, and this may just see Prandelli give him the nod ahead of Immobile, but given the recent form of Immobile, don’t count out the idea of the Italian Boss going with the unknown.

All smiles now: Balotelli & Ciro Immobile share a joke at Italy's training camp.
But who will Cesare Prandelli choose to lead his line against England?

Italy’s Probable Lineup

4-3-2-1

The Three Lions

England’s back five - much like Italy’s effectively picks itself. 

Following a dreadful start to last season - which resulted in Manuel Pellegrini dropping him from The Manchester City lineup - since his return Joe Hart has been consistently brilliant, and was a major factor in City’s title success this season. 

Right back will, once again, be England’s biggest concern throughout this World Cup; with the erratic and gaffe-prone Glen Johnson as England’s first choice. The fact that Hodgson has used James Milner at in this role during England’s warm up games has done little to alleviate English anxiety, in a position that they have struggled in since Gary Neville’s retirement. 

England’s remaining back line will be made up of Chelsea’s Gary Cahill, who has increasingly looked a genuine world class centre back at club level this season, and Everton pair Phil Jagielka and Leighton Baines. Given the scarcity of genuine cover, the fitness of Cahill and Jagielka will be key for any English success this summer. Both Phil Jones and Chris Smalling have had horrendous seasons domestically and have looked poor in England’s warm up matches.

England's centre back pairing of Gary Cahill & Phil Jagielka will look to bring
their excellent club form with them to Brazil this summer.

It is difficult to see Roy Hodgson allowing Andrea Pirlo the time and space to man oeuvre at will and to tear England to shreds like their last meeting at Euro 2012. This time around, expect Jordan Henderson to be given the role of terrier, to close down the space around which Pirlo will look to dictate the play.

Perhaps the most important player in England’s first match will be the Jungle climate of Manaus. In what we already know to be terrible playing conditions, on a dreadful looking pitch, will only be exacerbated by an intimidating temperature of 25+ degrees Celsius, with a humidity up in the high 70’s. Don’t expect two teams looking to press each other high up the pitch early doors. 

Given the premium on possession, expect to see experienced stalwarts Lampard and Gerard marshaling the three-man midfield. Despite a combined age of over 70, Gerard is coming off the back of his best season in years, and the evergreen Lampard has looked excellent for England in their warm up games.

The Old Guard. 

Behind Hodgson’s beloved Rooney, in the absence of Manchester United’s injured  Danny Welbeck, it looks like England will call upon the explosive Raheem Sterling. Sterling is widely reported to have been superb in camp this summer, leaving senior squad members raving about his performances in training. If Hodsgon is wise, he will line Sterling up on the right, thus giving him licence to attack the normally right sided De Sciglio.

The Young Pretender: Raheem Sterling's post season form in an
England shirt has been a huge lifet for The England Camp.

Don’t all groan at once.

Don’t be surprised if Hodgson elects to start with Manchester City’s James Milner. The much maligned multiple Premier League winner rarely fails to deliver when called upon. The attack minded Sterling will look to go forward at every opportunity, and if England face being caught in possession and hit on the break, Milner is a safer option to re-balance a midfield with defensive duties, than the (otherwise excellent) pair of Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and Adam Lallana.

Our Predicted England Lineup

4-3-2-1

Final Thoughts

This one will be a tight affair, with both sides giving little away. Expect to see the best young English prospect since Paul Gascoigne, Everton's Ross Barkley introduced late in the game, as well as Arsenal's Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain. Their introduction could do some serious damage to a tiring Italy side not blessed with a great deal of pace. 

For Italy likewise, expect Antonio Cassano & Ciro Immobile to feature in the latter stages, attempting to make a similar impact. If Prandelli introduces Alessio Cerci to stretch England's midfield, we could see Roy Hodgson replace Lampard with Arsenal's Jack Wilshere; whose natural ability and aggression looking to get forward from central areas will be a massive worry for the Italians.

Prediction.*

1-0 England. A tight game of few real chances is decided late on by the explosive Ross Barkley, who introduces himself upon The World Stage.

*Warning. Prediction may contain unsubstantiated hope and optimism.

Don't agree with our lineup? Comment below, or on social media, as to how you would send out the Three Lions!

England's Route To World Cup Glory In Brazil

Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The local time is 7:45pm on the 13th July, 2014.

"Football's Coming Home" blares around the Estádio do Maracanã, as Steven Gerrard prepares to lift the FIFA World Cup Trophy; the first Englishman to do so for almost half a century. England have just dispatched their age old rivals Germany on penalties to secure victory in the World Cup Final...

...Ok, back to reality.

England fans are often renowned for their massive over-confidence in their heroes in white. With humbling absence from Euro 2008 and woeful under performance in South Africa 2010, even the most optimistic England fan has been toned down in recent years, and would be forced to admit that progression beyond the Round of 16 in Brazil would be a pleasing result. Although, you might argue that Euro 2012 was a step in the right direction.

That is not to say that qualification from the group stages cannot, or even should not be achievable. Roy Hodgson has picked an exciting young squad, and in our Group D opponents we have an ageing Italy side, and a potentially Suarez-less Uruguay; whose World Cup availability hangs on the development of that knee injury. Elsewhere, England will be considered heavy favourites to dispatch the Costa Rican side without too much trouble - mind you, we did fail to register a goal past Algeria last time out on the World Cup stage.

But say we did get out of the groups. How might our World Cup pan out beyond those vital first three games?

Got your wall chart at the ready? Here use this one:

Click to download.

Naturally, in order to plot our path through the latter stages, several large assumptions are required; namely regarding how all of the other groups will finish.

In order to make these predictions, factors must be taken into account for each group; including qualifying performance, previous tournament experience, and continental home advantage.

Now obviously, to say this is a fool proof prediction would be silly - as we all know, football is capable of producing magical moments, that nobody could have legislated for. I do not profess to be capable of predicting the future.

However... this is who we think will qualify from each of their respective groups, and in what order:

Figure 1 - Group Predictions

Group A 

It is difficult to pick between Mexico and Croatia for second Place in Group A (*1). Despite having taken similar paths to the World Cup Finals, Mexico just about get the nod, due to continental advantage. By rights, Brazil topping the group should be a relatively straight-forward affair.

Group B

Group B sees the two finalists from South Africa 2010 pitted against each other once again. We expect the result to be the same, with the possession-based Spanish game being just too much for the Dutch to compete with. 

Chile may yet cause a stir; having home continent advantage and a decent turn out in qualification, but we're not expecting anything sufficient from either them or Australia. Coupled with two world superpowers in Spain and Holland, it is difficult to see either nation causing a severe upset. Thanks for coming though.

Group C 

Colombia have home continent advantage and also qualified strongly - only 2 points behind second-favourites Argentina after a sixteen-game round-robin; winning the same amount of games; 9. We expect Colombia to continue this vein of form throughout the Group Stage this summer and win Group C (*2).

The runner-up spot is a tight affair between Greece and Côte d'Ivoire, but the world class talents of Yaya Touré, Didier Drogba and company might just give them the required edge.

Group E 

Despite Switzerland being the seeded team in Group E, they qualified from a relatively easy group. In comparison, France finished second in their's, behind Spain, and beat a strong Ukraine side to win their playoff match. France are therefore our pick to top the group (*3).

Ecuador have continental home advantage, which could prove to be a decisive factor in Group E. On top of this, they gave a decent account of themselves in the qualifying stages, finishing fourth in the South American round-robin, and managed to snatch a draw at home to Argentina. For these reasons, we have given second place to Ecuador. 

In truth however, this will be a tough one to call, with Switzerland more than capable of handling themselves on the world stage - remember that 1-0 vanquishing of champions-elect, Spain, in 2010?

Group F

With more tournament experience and players comfortable in warmer climes, than Bosnia & Herzegovina, Nigeria are our choice for second place in Group F (*4), whilst Argentina are nailed on to clinch the top spot without too much trouble.

Bosnia & Herzegovina did however, qualify well, and might just prove to upset this particular prediction. In the greater scheme of things however, this doesn't impact much, as England would not face them until the Semi-Finals, whereby they would have needed to brush aside France and Germany en route - an unlikely scenario.

Group G

Similar in many respects to Group B. In a different group, Ghana or the USA might have managed to squeeze through into the Round of 16. However, trophy contenders Germany are favourites for the top spot, with Portugal our pick for second place. 

Despite Portugal requiring a play-off win against Sweden in order to even be in Brazil (unfortunately resulting in Zlatan Ibrahimovic's absence this summer), the elite talents of Cristiano Ronaldo may again be enough to drag them through, kicking and screaming. In reality though, this is a tough group for anybody who doesn't come from the land of bratwurst and lederhosen.

Group H 

Belgium, incredibly, come to Brazil as fifth favourites to lift the trophy. What they lack in tournament pedigree, they make up for in rising young superstars; in the likes of Eden Hazard and Thibaut Courtois. Mix this with the leadership knowhow of Vincent Kompany, and their high hopes might be justifiable. They also managed to qualify strongly in a tough group consisting of Croatia, Serbia, Scotland, Wales, and Macedonia - losing against nobody.

Despite having had a soft spot for South Korea since their incredible road to the Semi-Finals on home soil in 2002; Russia look like they will be just too strong for them. The Russians qualified well, beating a lack-lustre Portugal in the process. For those reasons, we award them second place in Group H, ahead of Korea (*5).

Knockout Stages

From the above results, the resulting Round of 16 is shown below, and has also been extrapolated into the Semi-Final stages, using the same criteria as in the group stages.

Figure 2 - Knockout Stage Predictions and Pathways

England

So, where are England amidst all of this? As you can see from Figure 2, we are left with two possible pathways in the "top-half" of the draw; neither of which are any picnic.

Interestingly, it would seem that our final positioning in Group D; whether finishing as table topping champions or in second place, makes seemingly minimal impact on our overall chances; with us  required to face at least two of the top four pre-tournament favourites on our way to the Final, and then likely another in the actual Final itself.

At the time of writing, the pre-tournament favourites rank as:

1) Brazil 3/1

2) Argentina 5/1

3) Germany 13/2

4) Spain 7/1 (I'd appreciate if you finished reading my article before hot-footing off to your local bookmakers - what a price!! - a Thwaite-Top-Tip if there ever was one).

12) Colombia 37/1

16) Ivory Coast 139/1

England Win Group D

The above odds would dictate that winning our group would be favourable; thereby coming up against the Ivory Coast (whom we have never before faced in the history of International Football) in the Round of 16 - progressing to face who we would expect to be Spain, followed by Argentina in the Semi-Finals. Topping Group D may also prove to be beneficial to England in the confidence department, having had to already better both Italy and Uruguay.

We could also draw on recent history going forward, should this prove to be our route of choice. Argentina have failed to better England since that fateful meeting in Saint-Étienne during the France '98 World Cup. 

Since that night, we have had the edge over the auld enemy, beating them twice (once during World Cup '02, effectively forcing their early exit in the Group Stages) and drawing once - although, they didn't have a certain kid from Rosario playing on any of those occasions. They do this time around.

Of course, we incredibly dispatched the reigning World Champions Spain, during an international friendly when last we met, in November 2011. With their Barça core having had a poor La Liga season; if ever there was a time to beat Spain, it might just be now. 

Writing off the current holders so easily is not something I would normally do (hence my intention to bet on them), but their vice-grip on world football has to loosen some time... doesn't it? Maybe not. They do still after all, continue to dominate European club football.

England Finish Second In Group D

Should we finish in a respectable second place in Group D, our destined route doesn't look altogether too dissimilar - consisting of a relatively easier task in the Round of 16, followed by a global superpower, followed by another who we happen to have historical beef with, in the Semi-Finals. 

This route is statistically more difficult, according to the bookmaker. But in reality; not by much. "Football isn't played on paper" - as they say. 

Colombia are a side that we have never lost to in our five previous meetings - winning three in the process. Although, our last win against them in South America came in 1970, having not played them at "their place" since. Bobby Charlton scored that day. 

Our potential Quarter-Final opponents, Brazil, are of course, this summer's tournament hosts; a role that has usually boded well for their predecessors. Being used to the local climate and having massive home crowd advantage throughout the tournament, the Samba-boys must be taken very seriously indeed for this summer's crown - not to mention that they're the most successful nation in international footballing history, despite having not won the trophy for over a decade now.

One point that you could argue however is that; it is not a given that Brazil will overcome a Dutch side that finished runner's up last time out, in order to make it into the Quarters themselves. Should Holland manage to oust Brazil, England fans might see this fixture as a bit more enticing.

Germany would then more-than-likely be our next challenge, in the Semi-Finals. They, themselves will have had to overcome a mercurial France to reach this point. France of course, famous for their wildly unpredictable tournament turn-outs, usually either winning, or crashing out in the Group Stages.

Germany represent a very real nightmare for any Englishman in the modern age of football. Visions of Mesut Özil outstripping Gareth Barry, before cooly putting Thomas Müller in, to round-off that humiliating 4-1 thumping in Bloemfontein four years ago, still resonate in the minds of many. It was without doubt the moment that Germany announced to us "We are in a different league".

We do however, go into this World Cup armed with goal-line technology, so you never know; rest easy Frank Lampard. An ever-present World Cup contender; Germany will never be an easy opponent.

Conclusions

In reality, it would appear that the best we can hope to achieve this summer is a commendable Quarter Final appearance, before being dumped out rather unceremoniously by any number of Latino-speaking countries. Indeed, we first have to navigate out of Group D; not an easy task in itself.  

It is evident from Roy Hodgson's squad selection that he is focussed on the years to come, and will not necessarily be overly-concerned with our stage of elimination in this particular tournament. The selection of Luke Shaw, in particular, ahead of Ashley Cole confirmed that Roy is keen to blood the promising youth emerging in the Premier League and will already have half an eye on France 2016.

But in the end, "C'est la vie" - European football has experienced extraordinary levels of competition this season; who's to say the FIFA World Cup cannot do the same. Regardless of England's final outcome, this summer will still be a very special time to be a football fan.

One thing is for certain though; it can't be said we had it easy, should the unthinkable happen.